2021 – when Bitcoin finally became legal currency

In June this year, El Salvador in Central America became the first country to make cryptocurrency, specifically bitcoin, legal tender. Earlier this week, businesses around the country actually began accepting bitcoin for payments, including salaries.

The background

The current thirty nine year old president of El Salvador has long championed the idea of cryptocurrency as legal tender. He first discussed it publicly as mayor of the capital city of San Salvador.

This was Bukele’s Twitter profile image a while ago. For real.

His take is that it could provide “an accessible financial platform for Salvadorans who don’t have a bank account, about 70 percent of the population.”

He and other proponents have also pointed out that USD six billion, or over twenty percent of the country’s GDP comes from remittance by citizens who live overseas, and that cryptocurrency had the potential to signficantly reduce fees for sending money into the country.

Interestingly, an anonymous donor had kicked off a pilot for the last couple of years in the village of El Zonte, which earned the nickname Bitcoin Beach. The results had been mixed – some people “didn’t have higher-end cellphones needed to download the app, while others said they had doubts about how it worked.”

Importantly, bitcoin transactions in the village take place using an app named Strike, which has now also been involved in the national rollout of bitcoin acceptance. Strike, developed by the US based company Zap, processes transfers over the Lightning network that runs on top of the Bitcoin blockchain, as opposed to making actual on-blockchain Bitcoin transfers.

As the Bitcoin Beach website describes it,

New Option using Bitcoin – son uses the new Strike App (https://strike.zaphq.io/) linked to his US bank account to send $100 in BTC over Lightning network. Cost to son $0 and 3 minutes of his time. Cost to mom $0 and receives payment immediately, directly to her phone.

She can buy milk from the local store that accepts Bitcoin (even sending payment directly from her phone sitting in her house and having someone deliver.) She can also pay her electric bill without leaving home, or walk down the street and eat at the local restaurant.

The $7 fee and $2 bus fare mean the transaction costs using Western Union would be 9%, and more importantly a big waste of time and effort. Bitcoin over the Lightning Network fixes this.

From the Bitcoin Beach website

The Lightning network

Strike and Chivo, the ‘official’ Bitcoin wallet app at the national level, are both Lightning network apps. Lightning is a ‘Level Two’ technology, which means it works on ‘top of’ the bitcoin blockchain, not on it. It makes a simple tradeoff: it increases speed of transfer for greatly reduced fees. It does this at the expense of decentralisation.

The Lightning network has its own nodes, separate from bitcoin, but connected to it. Two parties on the Lightning network create a private ledger between themselves, called a channel. They can send several transactions back and forth rapidly and cheaply between themselves, no Bitcoin blockchain involved. When they close the channel, the net result is written to the Bitcoin blockchain, with its associated speed and fees and finality.

For several million transactions daily between several million citizens, as you’d expect even in a small country like El Salvador, the Bitcoin blockchain isn’t going to cut it. The Bitcoin network today processes about seven or eight transactions per second at its maximum throughput. Layers like Lightning are a practical necessity for everyday payments. Bonus, they also make micropayments of fractions of a cent possible.

The launch

It went… as well as you’d expect the launch of an entirely new system of payment to go. There were problems with the availability of the Chivo app, problems connecting to the Lightning network, protests about the forced adoption of an entirely online currency in a country without 100% digital penetration, and a huge single-day crash in the price of bitcoin itself (which, to its credit, the El Salvadorian government used to its advantage to make bitcoin purchases of several million dollars).

People also protested the overhead of having every store, every vendor, every roadside operator being forced to accept bitcoin (it being legal currency now!). And not everyone is happy with the president’s declaration in June that “people investing three Bitcoins in country’s economy will be given citizenship by the government.”

But. Despite all of this. Bitcoin is now, alongside the US Dollar, the official currency of El Salvador.

In conclusion

This is a big deal – as a few people have pointed out, a nation-state has adopted as its currency a twelve year old technology that runs only on computers, mostly outside of its borders, owned by everyone and no one.

The promise of low remittance fees is very real. So far it’s been impractical not because of technology but because in most country there are no easy or legal ways to convert received cryptocurrency into fiat currency. That’s no longer the case in El Salvador.

And finally, it’s also true that the vast majority of the El Salvadorian population has been failed by its banks and financial system.

As we’ve seen many times on this newsletter, decentralised finance is remaking large parts of the traditional finance space: storing money, payments, lending and borrowing of all sorts, investments, insurance, and many others, offering conveniences that are not even possible without decentralisation.

There’s no expectation that this move will magically solve the country’s financial inclusion problems, but it does open the door to Defi entrepreneurs to bring their services to the ordinary El Salvadorian.

Principles that yielded 180% gains in five months

My holdings in Binance were up nearly 180% – or nearly 2.8x – in the five month period 1st Apr 2021 to 31st August 2021.

During this time, Bitcoin was down nearly 20%, from USD 59,000 to USD 47,300. Ethereum was up a little under 70%, from ~USD 1950 to ~USD 3300.

So the holdings did quite a lot better than either of these two coins by themselves.

Here is a quick peek into what I do.

Dollar-cost-averaging

In other words, making regular token purchases.

Bitcoin went down from USD 59,000 to nearly USD 29,000 before climbing to USD 47,000. Some of my holdings rode that rise.

Similarly, Ethereum rose to nearly USD 4,300, plummeting to almost USD 1,700 before rising back up to USD 3,300. Some of my holdings benefited from that last steep climb.

Diversification

I hold a number of alt coins in addition to Bitcoin and Ethereum. These are all tokens whose projects I see merit in. Some of them are Binance Coin (BNB), Pancakeswap (CAKE), Uniswap (UNI), Solana (SOL), Polygon (MATIC), Avalance (AVAX).

I also added these in more than one tranche during this period. Here is how they have done over the five month stretch, and from their low during this time. As you can see, some of them have done rather well:

Start is 1st Apr; End is 31st Aug

I also hold others in small proportions, whose rise and fall doesn’t affect the overall performance much. (and I hold some stablecoins whose value, by definition, doesn’t change).

Yield farming and staking

Through staking and adding to liquidity pools. Explore the Earn section on the Binance exchange for these products. I also participate in these on the decentralised exchange Pancakeswap, which has a wider range of staking pools and liquidity pools than Binance itself. There are further layers of optimisation above this to take advantage of, which I may describe in a separate post.

Several of these offer attractive yields:

But – and I cannot emphasise this enough – there is risk proportional to that return. For instance in liquidity pools, you should at least be aware of the concept of impermanent loss.

I mitigate these risks with some pretty basic principles:

One, I only stake or add to pools with tokens that I am comfortable holding, whose use in the parent project I’m familiar with. I do not swap to acquire tokens only for the sake of attractive yields.

Two, I plan to hold these tokens for the long term. As of this writing, indefinitely (or until the project no longer shows promise). That protects me a great deal against impermanent loss, because I’m less likely to remove liquidity and realise those losses, if any.

So there you have it

  • Dollar-cost-average into tokens, especially because they are so volatile
  • Diversify your holdings, into projects that you understand and believe in
  • Put those holdings to work through yield farming and staking, as long as you understand the risks involved.

Not all months, quarters or even years will be like this. Most of the crypto space is still largely speculative, so even dollar-cost averaging into good tokens that work hard for yields may result in nought as the market itself crashes. During those times it’s useful to be clear about why you want to hold crypto in the first place.

PS: what I describe is the active part of my holdings. I also hold Ethereum and Bitcoin in non-custodial wallets outside of Binance. Those are out-of-sight, out-of-mind holdings (“hodlings”). I keep the wallet passphrases secure but don’t check the value in those wallets very often.


Finally: consider subscribing to my once-a-week crypto newsletter for more like this.

Power utilities – mining their way to profitability

I read yesterday that one of New Zealand’s hydroelectric power projects will use excess electricity to mine bitcoin.

What if hydroelectric power projects in India could do the same?The state I live in, Maharashtra, has one of India’s largest hydroelectric power plants, Koyna.

Now, the Maharashtra State power generation utility lost ₹230 crore or ~$30 million in 2019-20. The price of bitcoin today is roughly $45,000. That means it would take about 30 million / 45,000 = 666 bitcoin at these prices to make up for the shortfall.

How much power would that take?

A few months ago, CNet estimated that it took about 1544kWh to mine one bitcoin. At that rate, to mine 666 bitcoin it would take 1544kWh x 666 = ~1030MWh.

The Koyna project has an installed capacity of 1960MW.

So very roughly, that’s 100% of Koyna’s output for 31 minutes, or 1% for 300 minutes, or 0.001% for 300,000 minutes or 83 hours. One would think that the power plant could spare that much extra capacity over the course of a year.

Obviously this is capped by the bitcoin mining rate (today ~6 ¼ bitcoin is mined as reward every 10 mins). And competition from miners throughout the world. But over a *year* it should be doable.

This is a simple thought experiment. The number are rough, but in the right ballpark. The market value of a marginal MWh of generated power is now measurable. The question is whether utilities in India and globally will take act on it.

Also read: a previous piece I wrote on Bitcoin as economic battery.